Systematic review and longitudinal analysis of implementing Artificial Intelligence to predict clinical deterioration in adult hospitals: what is known and what remains uncertain.

OBJECTIVE: To identify factors influencing implementation of machine learning algorithms (MLAs) that predict clinical deterioration in hospitalized adult patients and relate these to a validated implementation framework. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A systematic review of studies of implemented or trialed real-time clinical deterioration prediction MLAs was undertaken, which identified: how MLA implementation was measured; impact of MLAs on clinical processes and patient outcomes; and barriers, enablers and uncertainties within the implementation process. Review findings were then mapped to the SALIENT end-to-end implementation framework to identify the implementation stages at which these factors applied. RESULTS: Thirty-seven articles relating to 14 groups of MLAs were identified, each trialing or implementing a bespoke algorithm. One hundred and seven distinct implementation evaluation metrics were identified. Four groups reported decreased hospital mortality, 1 significantly. We identified 24 barriers, 40 enablers, and 14 uncertainties and mapped these to the 5 stages of the SALIENT implementation framework. DISCUSSION: Algorithm performance across implementation stages decreased between in silico and trial stages. Silent plus pilot trial inclusion was associated with decreased mortality, as was the use of logistic regression algorithms that used less than 39 variables. Mitigation of alert fatigue via alert suppression and threshold configuration was commonly employed across groups. CONCLUSIONS: : There is evidence that real-world implementation of clinical deterioration prediction MLAs may improve clinical outcomes. Various factors identified as influencing success or failure of implementation can be mapped to different stages of implementation, thereby providing useful and practical guidance for implementers.

Intensive care utilisation after elective surgery in Australia and New Zealand: getting the balance right.

Of the total intensive care unit (ICU) admissions in Australia and New Zealand, 36.6% occur following an elective surgical procedure. How best to use ICU services in this setting is not clear, despite this being an expensive and resource-intensive method of care delivery. The literature relating to this area has not demonstrated a clear association between improved outcomes and routine ICU utilisation. It has, however, demonstrated that methods of care delivery in this setting vary at the local, national and international level. There is now an increased interest in how we can offer safe, efficient care to patients who need ICU-level support after elective surgery, as well as where and when that care can be offered. We had previously performed a literature review relating to ICU utilisation in the elective surgical post-operative setting. This perspective piece arises from this literature review as well as extensive clinical experience from the authors. We discuss the need for a move towards an evidence-based indication for ICU admission and how this may be achieved. We then move on to the various alternative models of care that could be offered, briefly discussing their positives and potential drawbacks. We finish by outlining the research priorities and how these might be implemented in clinical practice. Getting the balance right between ICU admission and higher acuity ward-level care for post-operative elective surgical patients is difficult. However, this is an important challenge that we as a healthcare community must be working to answer.

Tiered escalation response systems in practice: A post hoc analysis examining the workload implications.

Objective: Many rapid response systems now have multiple tiers of escalation in addition to the traditional single tier of a medical emergency team. Given that the benefit to patient outcomes of this change is unclear, we sought to investigate the workload implications of a multitiered system, including the impact of trigger modification. Design: The study design incorporated a post hoc analysis using a matched case-control dataset. Setting: The study setting was an acute, adult tertiary referral hospital. Participants: Cases that had an adverse event (cardiac arrest or unanticipated intensive care unit admission) or a rapid response team (RRT) call participated in the study. Controls were matched by age, gender, ward and time of year, and no adverse event or RRT call. Participants were admitted between May 2014 and April 2015. Main outcome measures: The main outcome measure were the number of reviews, triggers, and modifications across three tiers of escalation; a nurse review, a multidisciplinary review (MDT-admitting medical team review), and an RRT call. Results: There were 321 cases and 321 controls. Overall, there were 1948 nurse triggers, of which 1431 (73.5%) were in cases and 517 (26.5%) in controls, 798 MDT triggers (660 [82.7%] in cases and 138 [17.3%] in controls), and 379 RRT triggers (351 [92.6%] in cases and 28 [7.4%] in controls). Per patient per 24 h, there were 3.03 nurse, 1.24 MDT, and 0.59 RRT triggers. Accounting for modifications, this reduced to 2.17, 0.88, and 0.42, respectively. The proportion of triggers that were modified, so as not to trigger a review, was similar across all the tiers, being 28.6% of nurse, 29.6% of MDT, and 28.2% of RRT triggers. Per patient per 24 h, there were 0.61 nurse reviews, 0.52 MDT reviews, and 0.08 RRT reviews. Conclusions: Lower-tier triggers were more prevalent, and modifications were common. Modifications significantly mitigated the escalation workload across all tiers of a multitiered system.

Vital signs and medical emergency response (MER) activation predict in-hospital mortality in general surgery patients: a study of 15 969 admissions.

BACKGROUND: The applicability of the vital signs prompting medical emergency response (MER) activation has not previously been examined specifically in a large general surgical cohort. This study aimed to characterize the distribution, and predictive performance, of four vital signs selected based on Australian guidelines (oxygen saturation, respiratory rate, systolic blood pressure and heart rate); with those of the MER activation criteria. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted including patients admitted under general surgical services of two hospitals in South Australia over 2 years. Likelihood ratios for patients meeting MER activation criteria, or a vital sign in the most extreme 1% for general surgery inpatients (<0.5th percentile or > 99.5th percentile), were calculated to predict in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: 15 969 inpatient admissions were included comprising 2 254 617 total vital sign observations. The 0.5th and 99.5th centile for heart rate was 48 and 133, systolic blood pressure 85 and 184, respiratory rate 10 and 31, and oxygen saturations 89% and 100%, respectively. MER activation criteria with the highest positive likelihood ratio for in-hospital mortality were heart rate ≤ 39 (37.65, 95% CI 27.71-49.51), respiratory rate ≥ 31 (15.79, 95% CI 12.82-19.07), and respiratory rate ≤ 7 (10.53, 95% CI 6.79-14.84). These MER activation criteria likelihood ratios were similar to those derived when applying a threshold of the most extreme 1% of vital signs. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated that vital signs within Australian guidelines, and escalation to MER activation, appropriately predict in-hospital mortality in a large cohort of patients admitted to general surgical services in South Australia.

Predictive value of a tiered escalation response system: A case control study.

OBJECTIVE: Rapid response systems designed to detect and respond to clinical deterioration often incorporate a multitiered, escalation response. We sought to determine the 'predictive strength' of commonly used triggers, and tiers of escalation, for predicting a rapid response team (RRT) call, unanticipated intensive care unit admission, or cardiac arrest (events). DESIGN: This was a nested, matched case-control study. SETTING: The study setting involved a tertiary referral hospital. PARTICIPANTS: Cases experienced an event, and controls were matched patients without an event. OUTCOME MEASURES: Sensitivity and specificity and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were measured. Logistic regression determined the set of triggers with the highest AUC. RESULTS: There were 321 cases and 321 controls. Nurse triggers occurred in 62%, medical review triggers in 34%, and RRT triggers 20%. Positive predictive value of nurse triggers was 59%, that of medical review triggers was 75%, and that of RRT triggers was 88%. These values were no different when modifications to triggers were considered. The AUC was 0.61 for nurses, 0.67 for medical review, and 0.65 for RRT triggers. With modelling, the AUC was 0.63 for the lowest tier, 0.71 for next highest, and 0.73 for the highest tier. CONCLUSION: For a three-tiered system, at the lowest tier, specificity of triggers decreases, sensitivity increases, but the discriminatory power is poor. Thus, there is little to be gained by using a rapid response system with more than two tiers. Modifications to triggers reduced the potential number of escalations and did not affect tier discriminatory value.

Protocol describing a systematic review and mixed methods consensus process to define the deteriorated ward patient.

INTRODUCTION: Most patients admitted to hospital recover with treatments that can be administered on the general ward. A small but important group deteriorate however and require augmented organ support in areas with increased nursing to patient ratios. In observational studies evaluating this cohort, proxy outcomes such as unplanned intensive care unit admission, cardiac arrest and death are used. These outcome measures introduce subjectivity and variability, which in turn hinders the development and accuracy of the increasing numbers of electronic medical record (EMR) linked digital tools designed to predict clinical deterioration. Here, we describe a protocol for developing a new outcome measure using mixed methods to address these limitations. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will undertake firstly, a systematic literature review to identify existing generic, syndrome-specific and organ-specific definitions for clinically deteriorated, hospitalised adult patients. Secondly, an international modified Delphi study to generate a short list of candidate definitions. Thirdly, a nominal group technique (NGT) (using a trained facilitator) will take a diverse group of stakeholders through a structured process to generate a consensus definition. The NGT process will be informed by the data generated from the first two stages. The definition(s) for the deteriorated ward patient will be readily extractable from the EMR. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study has ethics approval (reference 16399) from the Central Adelaide Local Health Network Human Research Ethics Committee. Results generated from this study will be disseminated through publication and presentation at national and international scientific meetings.

Impact of a standardised rapid response system on clinical outcomes of female patients: an interrupted time series approach.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to assess the impact of a standardised rapid response systems (the Between the Flags (BTF)) implemented across New South Wales (NSW), Australia, among female patients. METHODS: We conducted an interrupted time series (2007-2013) population-based linkage study including 5 114 170 female patient (≥18 years old) admissions in all 232 public hospitals in NSW. We studied changes in levels and trends of patient outcomes after BTF implementation among four age groups of female patients. RESULTS: Before the BTF system introduction (2007-2009), for the female patients as a whole, there was a progressive decrease in rates of in-hospital cardiopulmonary arrest (IHCA), IHCA-related mortality and hospital mortality for female patients. However, there were no changes in deaths in low-mortality diagnostic-related groups (DLMDRGs), IHCA survival to discharge and 1-year post-discharge mortality after surviving an IHCA. Only the female patients aged 55 years and older showed the same results as the whole sample. After the BTF programme (2010-2013), the same trends (except for DLMDRG) continued for female patients as a whole and for those aged 55 years or older. There was a significant reduction in DLMDRG among female patients aged 35-54 years (p<0.001), those aged 75 years and over (p<0.05) and female patients as a whole (p<0.05). The decreasing secular trend of surviving an IHCA to hospital discharge before the BTF system (p<0.05) among patients aged 18-34 years old was reversed after the BTF implementation (p<0.01). CONCLUSIONS: For female patients the BTF programme introduction was associated with continued reductions in the rates of IHCA, IHCA-related mortality and hospital mortality, as well as a new reduction in DLMDRG for 35-54 years old patients and those aged 75 years and older, and increased survival for those aged 18-34 years who had suffered an IHCA.

Acute clinical deterioration and consumer escalation: The understanding and perceptions of hospital staff.

INTRODUCTION: Consumer escalation systems allow patients and families to escalate concerns about acute clinical deterioration. Hospital staff can impact upon the success of this process. As part of evaluation processes within a Local Health Network, where a consumer escalation system was introduced in accordance with National requirements, we sought to explore clinicians' understanding and perceptions of consumer escalation. METHODS: Voluntary and anonymous staff surveys pre, and post, system introduction. Quantitative data was analysed using descriptive statistics, chi-square independence, and non-parametric independent samples median tests. Qualitative data was evaluated using content analysis and cross-referenced with quantitative responses. RESULTS: Respondent's (pre: 215; post: 89) area of work varied significantly between survey periods. Most agreed that patients/families have a sound knowledge of a patient's typical health status (pre: 192/215 (89.3%); post 82/88 (93.2%)) and that patients/families should be encouraged to escalate concerns of deterioration to ward staff (pre: 209/212 (98.6%); post: 85/89 (95.5%)). Respondent perceptions of patient/family ability to recognise clinical deterioration varied. Staff agreement towards local response expectations decreased as the degree of clinical requirement increased. Staff concerns of increased workloads (pre: 90/214 (42.1%); post 12/72 (16.7%), p<0.001) and conflict generation (pre: 71/213 (33.3%); post: 7/71 (9.9%), p = 0.001) decreased significantly following system introduction. However, clinician perceptions of positive system effects also decreased (patient-staff rapport pre: 163/213 (76.5%); post: 38/72 (52.8%), p = 0.001; patient centred care pre: 188/214 (87.9%); post: 53/72 (73.6%), p = 0.012; patient safety pre: 173/214 (80.8%); post: 49/72 (68.1%), p = 0.077). Only 53% of respondents (pre: 112/213 (52.6%); post: 48/88 (54.5%)) perceived that patient/family have sufficient confidence to escalate concerns. CONCLUSION: Consumer escalation systems require staff support. Staff perceptions may indicate, and act as, barriers to the operation of consumer escalation processes. Further exploration in identifying and managing staff barriers is crucial to the success of consumer escalation.

Acute clinical deterioration and consumer escalation in the hospital setting: A literature review.

BACKGROUND: Consumer escalation systems that allow patients and/or their family/carers to escalate concerns about clinical deterioration have been proposed as a way of enhancing patient safety. However, evidence to guide implementation or to support system effectiveness remains unclear. AIM: To critically evaluate the current evidence surrounding consumer escalation within the context of clinical deterioration to identify the strengths, weaknesses and gaps in existing knowledge, essential themes, and directions for further investigation. METHOD: Database searches were conducted within Cumulative Index of Nursing and Allied Health Literature, PubMed, and the Cochrane Library for articles directly relating to consumer escalation systems published, in English, within the previous 10 year-period. Titles and abstracts were screened and relevant full-text articles included. Content was examined to identify breadth of knowledge, essential themes, and the effectiveness of current systems. RESULTS: 27 articles, containing a mixture of both quantitative and qualitative findings, were identified. Within the context of limitations in the overall depth and quality of current evidence, four key areas (relating to consumer understanding and awareness of clinical deterioration, confidence and ability to escalate concerns, education, and staff attitudes) were identified as potentially critical to the foundation, functioning, and success of consumer escalation systems. Consumer escalation processes may contribute positive effects beyond mortality rates; however, an agreed method of assessing effectiveness remains undetermined. CONCLUSIONS: The ability of consumer escalation processes to achieve their underlying goals is still to be adequately assessed. Further research is required to inform how to best implement, support and optimise consumer escalation systems.

The effectiveness of a standardised rapid response system on the reduction of cardiopulmonary arrests and other adverse events among emergency surgical admissions.

AIM: A standardised rapid response system (RRS), called the "Between-the-Flags" (BTF) program, was implemented across a large health jurisdiction in Australia in 2010. The impact of RRS on emergency surgical admissions is unknown. METHODS: We linked the NSW Admitted Patient Data Collection (APDC) and the NSW Registry of Births, Deaths, and Marriages. We used a propensity score-based inverse-probability-weighting adjustment to estimated average treatment effects among treated subjects (prior-RRS hospitals vs prior-non-RRS hospitals) before the BTF implementation (2007-2008) and after (2010-2013). RESULTS: Before BTF, prior-RRS hospitals had a lower rate of in hospital cardiopulmonary arrests (IHCA) (4.7 vs 7.8 per 1000 admissions, P < 0.001), a lower rate of IHCA related deaths (3.0 vs 4.4 per 1000 admissions, P = 0.03) compared with patients in prior-non-RRS hospitals. There were no significant differences in overall in-hospital mortality and 30-day mortality between the two cohorts. After BTF, there were no significant differences for IHCA (4.8 vs 5.5 per 1000 admissions, P = 0.081) and related death rates (2.4 vs 2.3 per 1000 admissions, P = 0.678) between the two cohorts. Hospital mortality, 30-day mortality improved across both prior-RRS and prior-non-RRS hospitals following the BTF implementation. CONCLUSION: BTF program was associated with a significant reduction in IHCA and IHCA deaths for emergency surgical patients in prior-non-RRS hospitals but not in the prior-RRS hospitals. The overall hospital and 30-day mortality improved in both cohorts after BTF.

Optimising the response to acute clinical deterioration: the role of observation and response charts.

We sought the role of the hospital inpatient observation and response chart (ORC) in reducing adverse outcomes. We sourced articles written in English and published in PubMed. Track, trigger and response systems can be tiered and use single parameter or aggregate scoring systems; the latter being more prone to error. The documentation and detection of abnormal vital signs can be affected by choice of trigger and response and by ORC design. There is considerable variation in the design of ORC and of rapid response systems (RRS) in general, and this impairs assessment of their efficacy. A high rate of modification of pre-determined triggers and poor sensitivity of measured outcomes further compromise systematic review. The best-designed ORC and RRS should optimise the frequency of response team activation to minimise adverse patient outcomes without excess resource utilisation. The role and the risks of electronic data recording are under-explored. Detecting and responding to deteriorating patients relies upon accurate and clear documentation of vital signs. ORC design and staff education on ORC implementation and usage are integral to minimising ALF and optimising patient outcomes. Standardisation of the design of both the ORC and the hospital RRS are overdue.

Hospital variability of postoperative sepsis and sepsis-related mortality after elective coronary artery bypass grafting surgery.

PURPOSE: Hospital variability of postoperative sepsis and sepsis-related mortality after elective CABG surgery was not known in Australia. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Population-based analysis of all elective patients who underwent CABG surgery in public and private hospitals between 2007 and 2014 using linked data from the state-wide Admitted Patient Data Collection and the NSW Registry of Births, Deaths, and Marriages. RESULTS: We identified 18,928 (9464 pairs) matched patients who had elective CABG surgery in public hospitals (n = 9) and private hospitals (n = 13) during the study period. When compared to public hospital patients, private hospital patients had a significantly lower rate of post-CABG sepsis (13.3 vs 20.4 per 1000 admissions, P < 0.001; treatment effects: -7.1, 95%CI: -11.1 to -3.3), a lower in-hospital mortality rate (6.1 vs 9.9 per 1000 admissions, P = 0.006; treatment effects: -3.8, 95%CI: -6.5 to -1.1), and a lower rate of 30-day readmission (11.9% vs 13.9%, P < 0.001; treatment effects: -2.0%, 95%CI: -3.1% to -1.0%). In addition, for both public and private hospital groups, there were significant differences for all outcomes when comparing the worst and best performance quintile hospitals. CONCLUSIONS: Hospital variability of postoperative sepsis, in-hospital mortality and readmission after elective CABG existed between and within public and private hospitals.

Rapid response team calls that overlap in time: incidence, consequences and patient outcomes.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate overlap rapid response team (RRT) calls, factors associated with overlap calls, and their impact on RRT call times and patient outcomes. DESIGN AND SETTING: Review of prospectively collected, linked clinical and administrative datasets, at a public adult tertiary hospital during July 2013 to May 2016. RESULTS: There were 11 669 RRT calls to 7223 patients, of which 10 868 calls (93.1%) were to inpatients. The median number of daily calls was 12 (interquartile range [IQR], 9-15 calls; range, 2-29 calls). The median number of daily calls per 1000 hospital admissions was 56.3 (IQR, 41.3- 78.9 calls/1000 admissions; range, 8.3-231.5 calls/1000 admissions), and the median proportion of the day spent at RRT calls was 22.8% (IQR, 16.9%-30.5%). In total, 4575 (39.2%) calls overlapped. Overlap calls, compared with non-overlap calls, had similar patient characteristics, but a longer response time (4 min v 3 min; P < 0.001) and scene time (20 min v 34 min; P < 0.001). The daily number of calls correlated with the number of overnight-stay hospital admissions (r = 0.104; P = 0.001), but not with the total number of hospital admissions (r = -0.035; P = 0.258). The number of overlap calls correlated with the number of RRT calls (r = 0.786; P < 0.001), and also correlated with the proportion of the day spent at RRT calls (r = 0.762; P < 0.001). Overlap calls, compared with non-overlap calls, were more likely to result in an ICU admission (484 calls [11.2%] v 571 calls [8.7%]; P < 0.001). In contrast, efferent limb failure (815 calls [17.8%] v 1195 calls [16.8%]; P = 0.389) and hospital mortality (496 calls [19.3%] v 781 calls [19.6%]; P = 0.823) was similar for overlap and nonoverlap calls, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Overlap RRT calls are common and influenced by overall RRT and hospital activity. They are more likely to be associated with longer response and scene times and unanticipated ICU admissions.

The impact of post-operative sepsis on mortality after hospital discharge among elective surgical patients: a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Our aim in the present study was to assess the mortality impact of hospital-acquired post-operative sepsis up to 1 year after hospital discharge among adult non-short-stay elective surgical patients. METHODS: We conducted a population-based, retrospective cohort study of all elective surgical patients admitted to 82 public acute hospitals between 1 January 2007 and 31 December 2012 in New South Wales, Australia. All adult elective surgical admission patients who stayed in hospital for ≥4 days and survived to discharge after post-operative sepsis were identified using the Admitted Patient Data Collection records linked with the Registry of Births, Deaths, and Marriages. We assessed post-discharge mortality rates at 30 days, 60 days, 90 days and 1 year and compared them with those of patients without post-operative sepsis. RESULTS: We studied 144,503 survivors to discharge. Of these, 1857 (1.3%) had experienced post-operative sepsis. Their post-discharge mortality rates at 30 days, 60 days, 90 days and 1 year were 4.6%, 6.7%, 8.1% and 13.5% (vs 0.7%, 1.2%, 1.5% and 3.8% in the non-sepsis cohort), respectively (P < 0.0001 for all). After adjustment for patient and hospital characteristics, post-operative sepsis remained independently associated with a higher mortality risk (30-day mortality HR 2.75, 95% CI 2.14-3.53; 60-day mortality HR 2.45, 95% CI 1.94-3.10; 90-day mortality HR 2.31, 95% CI 1.85-2.87; 1-year mortality HR 1.71, 95% CI 1.46-2.00). Being older than 75 years of age (HR 3.50, 95% CI 1.56-7.87) and presence of severe/very severe co-morbidities as defined by Charlson co-morbidity index (severe vs normal HR 2.05, 95% CI 1.45-2.89; very severe vs normal HR 2.17, 95% CI 1.49-3.17) were the only other significant independent predictors of increased 1-year mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Among elective surgical patients, post-operative sepsis is independently associated with increased post-discharge mortality up to 1 year after hospital discharge. This risk is particularly high in the first month, in older age patients and in the presence of severe/very severe co-morbidities. This high-risk population can be targeted for interventions.

Developing models to predict early postoperative patient deterioration and adverse events.

BACKGROUND: Accurate identification of patients at risk of early postoperative deterioration allows needs-based allocation of patients to appropriate levels of care. This study aimed to record the incidence of early postoperative deterioration and identify factors predictive of at-risk patients. Doing so may assist future evidence-based perioperative planning and allocation of patients to high-acuity facilities. METHODS: With ethical approval, data from elective non-cardiac surgical patients were collected between May and August 2013. Patient and surgical factors potentially related to postoperative deterioration were collected from preoperative assessment records. Data on deterioration in the postanaesthesia care unit (PACU), and on the wards were collected prospectively for a period of 72 h postoperatively. Patient factors, surgical factors and PACU events were compared with ward events using binomial logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Of the 747 patients, postoperative deterioration was common both in PACU (155 (20.1%) patients) and on the wards (125 (16.7%)). Common ward events included hypotension (64 (8.2%)) and desaturation (59 (6.2%)). A rapid response team call occurred for 33 (4.4%) patients and an unplanned ICU admission for seven (0.9%) patients. A history of atrial fibrillation and chronic liver disease, duration of surgery and excessive sedation in PACU, among others, were strongly associated with subsequent ward deterioration. However, measures of surgical complexity were not. CONCLUSIONS: Patient factors, duration of surgery and events in PACU can be predictive of subsequent early postoperative ward clinical deterioration. Such information may aid appropriate perioperative decision-making with respect to postoperative utilization of high-acuity facilities.

Incidences and variations of hospital acquired venous thromboembolism in Australian hospitals: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Data on hospital-acquired venous thromboembolism (HA-VTE) incidence, case fatality rate and variation amongst patient groups and health providers is lacking. We aim to explore HA-VTE incidences, associated mortality, trends and variations across all acute hospitals in New South Wales (NSW)-Australia. METHODS: A population-based study using all admitted patients (aged 18-90 with a length of stay of at least two days and not transferred to another acute care facility) in 104 NSW acute public and private hospitals during 2002-2009. Poisson mixed models were used to derive adjusted rate ratios (IRR) in presence of patient and hospital characteristics. RESULTS: Amongst, 3,331,677 patients, the incidence of HA-VTE was 11.45 per 1000 patients and one in ten who developed HA-VTE died in hospital. HA-VTE incidence, initially rose, but subsequently declined, whereas case fatality rate consistently declined by 22 % over the study period. Surgical patients were 128 % (IRR = 2.28, 95 % CI: 2.19-2.38) more likely to develop HA-VTE, but had similar case fatality rates compared to medical patients. Private hospitals, in comparison to public hospitals had a higher incidence of HA-VTE (IRR = 1.76; 95 % CI: 1.42-2.18) for medical patients. However, they had a similar incidence (IRR = 0.91; 95 % CI: 0.75-1.11), but a lower mortality (IRR = 0.59; 95 % CI: 0.47-0.75) amongst surgical patients. Smaller public hospitals had a lower HA-VTE incidence rate compared to larger hospitals (IRR < 0.68) but a higher case fatality rate (IRR > 1.71). Hospitals with a lower reported HA-VTE incidence tended to have a higher HA-VTE case fatality rate. CONCLUSION: Despite the decline in HA-VTE incidence and case fatality, there were large variations in incidents between medical and surgical patients, public and private hospitals, and different hospital groups. The causes of such differences warrant further investigation and may provide potential for targeted interventions and quality improvement initiatives.

Impact of a standardized rapid response system on outcomes in a large healthcare jurisdiction.

AIM: To assess the impact of a standardized rapid response system (RRS) implemented across a large health care jurisdiction on reducing serious adverse events, hospital mortality and unexpected deaths. METHOD: We conducted an interrupted time series (2007-2013) population-based study in the state of New South Wales (NSW), Australia to evaluate the impact of introducing a statewide standardized RRS (the between-the-flags [BTF] system) which employed a five-component intervention strategy. We studied 9,799,081 admissions in all 232 public hospitals in NSW. We studied changes in trends for annual rates of multiple key patient-centered outcomes before and after its introduction. RESULTS: Before the BTF system (2007-2009), there was a progressive decrease in mortality, cardiac arrest rates, cardiac arrests related mortality, and failure to rescue rates, but no changes in mortality rate among low mortality diagnostic related group (LMDRGs) patients. After the BTF program (2010-2013), the same trends continued for all outcomes with an overall (2013 vs 2007) 46% reduction in cardiac arrest rates; a 54% reduction in cardiac arrest related mortality rates; a 19% reduction in hospital mortality; a 35% decrease in failure to rescue rates (all Ps<0.001) over seven-years. In addition, there was a new 20% (p<0.001) mortality reduction among LMDRG patients (2013 vs 2007). CONCLUSIONS: The BTF program was associated with continued decrease in the overall cardiac arrests rates, deaths after cardiac arrest, hospital mortality and failure to rescue. In addition, among patients in the LMDRC group, it induced a new and significant post-intervention reduction in mortality which was never reported before.

Incidence and mortality of postoperative sepsis in New South Wales, Australia, 2002-2009.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the incidence and mortality of postoperative sepsis in New South Wales, Australia. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: A retrospective study of adult elective surgical admissions (n = 229 918) in 82 public acute care hospitals in NSW, 2002-2009. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Changes in the incidence rate of post-operative sepsis and sepsis-related mortality. RESULTS: Although the mortality rate among patients with sepsis decreased from 26.9% in 2002 to 20.2% in 2009 (P = 0.006 for adjusted trend), the incidence rate of sepsis increased from 12.7 to 15.8 per 1000 admissions (adjusted rate ratio [RR], 1.23; 95% CI, 1.06-1.42). Thus, the incidence rate of sepsis-related deaths remained unchanged (3.4 v 3.2 per 1000 admissions; adjusted RR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.67-1.22), as did deaths from sepsis as a proportion of all elective surgical deaths (P = 0.96 for adjusted trend). The incidence rate of infections without a specified organism identified increased; was twice the rate of gram-positive infections (8.5 v 4.1 per 1000 admissions, P < 0.001); and was three times the rate of gram-negative infections (8.5 v 2.7 per 1000 admissions, P < 0.001). Also, compared with patients with gram-positive infections, patients with an unspecified infection were more likely to die (adjusted RR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.13-1.57), but patients with gram-negative infections and mixed infections had a similar likelihood of death from their infection. CONCLUSION: Over 8 years, the mortality from postoperative sepsis decreased, but its incidence rate increased, resulting in a lack of improvement in the incidence rate of sepsis-related deaths. The increasing incidence of postoperative sepsis and the poor record of identification of causative organisms remain a significant public health challenge.